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Jul. 13, 2007
Bush and Clinton Out-Poll … Bush and Clinton?
RALEIGH - North Carolina voters long for the good old days, according to a new survey from the N.C. Center for Voter Education that reveals general voter dissatisfaction with politics as usual and current political leaders. The findings indicate that the state could prove very competitive in the 2008 presidential elections.
The statewide survey of voters confirms what most observers already suspected: President George W. Bush’s popularity in North Carolina continues to fall.
Only 43 percent of voters have a favorable view of the president, while 55 percent have an unfavorable view. More than a third (39 percent) say they have a very unfavorable opinion of him. There has been significant erosion in his numbers in the past few years considering President Bush won the state by 12 points in 2004.
Likewise, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, labeled by many as the Democratic Party’s frontrunner, also suffers from a lack of popularity in the state, with 46 percent of voters expressing a favorable opinion of Sen. Clinton and 49 percent expressing an unfavorable opinion. Like the president, Sen. Clinton also suffers from these negative opinions being quite strong, with 36 percent of voters having a very unfavorable impression of her.
The same negative ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinions about her is held by ticket-splitting voters, the swing voters that often determine statewide winners, where again only 46 percent had a favorable opinion of her while 50 percent had a negative opinion. Among unaffiliated or “independent” voters, her support dropped to 41 percent and unfavorable opinion of her grew to 53 percent.
To determine whether these dismal rankings were indicative of the public’s mood about all politicians or just these two individuals, the Center also asked for voters’ opinion of former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
Despite never having won North Carolina while running for the White House, former President Clinton enjoys a 54 percent favorable rating, with 45 percent disapproving of him. The senior President Bush receives a favorable nod from 65 percent of the voters, and unfavorable impressions from only 33 percent of them.
Nearly a quarter of North Carolina voters (22 percent) have favorable views about former President George H.W. Bush, but unfavorable views of his son, the current president. Another 10 percent of voters think highly of former President Clinton, but hold unfavorable views about his wife.
That difference, the Center claims, represents the crucial swing voters that will determine which party’s candidate receives the state’s 15 electoral votes in 2008.
“North Carolina is a state where Democrats have always outnumbered Republicans, but where conservative Democrats often break with their party when voting for national leaders,” explained Chris Heagarty, executive director of the N.C. Center for Voter Education. “A large number of the self-identified moderates and independent voters who helped elect both President Bush 41 and 43 are unhappy with the current administration and don’t support the president. However, they don’t necessarily support Sen. Clinton, either.”
These conservative-to-moderate Democrats, often called “Jesse-crats” based on their past support of former U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms, together with independent voters, represent a growing block in North Carolina that is frustrated with politics and their current political options, according to the Center.
Ninety-two percent of voters that have a favorable impression of the former President Bush and have an unfavorable opinion of the current president believe campaign contributions lead to conflicts of interest for elected officials.
Also, 90 percent agree that most state voters don’t know what many of the officials elected on the ballot actually do. Eighty-four percent agree that candidates are often selected for reasons other than their qualifications and a disturbing 81 percent believe that elected officials are more concerned with the needs of those who pay for their campaigns than the needs of the people.
Similarly, the group of voters with a favorable opinion of Bill Clinton and an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton also expressed similar beliefs, with 98 percent agreeing that campaign contributions can lead to conflicts of interest, 95 percent saying most people don’t know the duties of different elective offices, 88 percent claiming candidates are often chosen for reasons other than their qualification, and 79 percent believing elected officials are more concerned about the needs of their contributors than those of their constituents.
The Center concludes that voters are tired of politics as usual and the candidate who can show separation from special interests can win North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, regardless of their political affiliation.
“North Carolina’s electoral votes are, we feel, very much up for grabs by any candidate who can appeal to this block of swing voters and address their concerns and cynicism about government and corruption,” said Heagarty.
The poll was conducted from June 12-13 among 600 registered North Carolina voters and has a margin of error of 4 percent.
The N.C. Center for Voter Education is a Raleigh-based nonprofit and nonpartisan organization, dedicated to improving elections in North Carolina.
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