• Home
• Voting & Democracy
  • Go Vote
  • N.C. Voter Guide
  • VoterRadio.com
• Research & Publications
  • Follow the Money
  • NCCVE Research
• Multimedia
  • The Voter Update Podcast
• For the Media
  • News Releases
  • Media Advisories
  • Contact NCCVE
• About Us
  • Board of Directors
  • Staff
  • Contribute to NCCVE
  • Contact Us
• Search

Feb. 4, 2008

The Independents are Coming

By John Thompson

RALEIGH - Last month, “Time Magazine” ran a story on the unaffiliated voter, noting that as one of the fastest growing voting blocks in the nation, independents could make or break this year’s candidates.

Independents have already made their impact felt in this year’s presidential primaries in such states as New Hampshire, where they account for 44 percent of all registered voters -- more than Republicans or Democrats. 

While not as prominent as in the Granite State, the number of independent voters in North Carolina is on the rise. Since our state’s unaffiliated voters can cast a ballot in either the Republican or Democratic primary this May, they could prove to be kingmakers in deciding the nominees in such high-profile contests as the race for the governor’s mansion. But the prominence of unaffiliated voters is somewhat new to North Carolina.

Forty years ago, Democrats dominated the Tar Heel State’s two-party political system, claiming 79 percent of registered voters. Republicans accounted for about 18 percent.  Since 1966, the rate of increase for unaffiliated voters in North Carolina has surpassed that for both the Republican and Democratic parties.

The trend began in 1968 when the state Democratic Party saw voters leave their ranks and register as Republicans or unaffiliated. The shift was modest at first -- Republicans gained 4 percent and the number of independent voters rose by 2 percent.

In the following decades, the trend began to snowball.  In 1980, voter registration was at 72 percent Democrat, 24 percent Republican and 4 percent unaffiliated. Even with the avalanche of Reaganism and the popularity of Clinton, neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party could offset the slow trickle of voter registration draining into the independent column.

By the 2000 election, Democrats had lost 30 percent of their share of voter registration from 1966, while Republicans gained 16 percent.  Surprisingly, the number of unaffiliated voters rose to 15 percent. In 2004, voter affiliation in North Carolina broke down as 46 percent Democrat, 34 percent Republican and 18 percent unaffiliated.

As bleak as this trend might seem for Democrats, it does not necessarily anoint the Republican Party as king. The GOP saw their largest registration surge in 1968 at an increase of 4 percent, then again in 1988 when registration was up 2 percent from the year before.  Yet since 1988, Republicans have not seen more than a 1 percent annual increase from previous years, and they suffered a slight decline in 2002.

In reality, Democrats are not moving into the Republican camp in droves. Instead, many are declaring themselves to be independent. With one in five voters registered as unaffiliated in North Carolina, they are growing stronger at the ballot box. Candidates would be wise to ask: what has driven these voters from the two major parties?

According to the Oakland, Calif.-based Independent Institute, many of these unaffiliated voters “believe partisanship has degraded our democracy and that the Democrats and Republicans have become special interests unto themselves.”

“New York Times” columnist Stanley Fish observed that independent voters seem to agree with George Washington, who in his farewell address warned against the “baneful effects of the spirit of party” and “the alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge.”

How long Democrats can maintain power in North Carolina in the face of shifting demographics is yet to be seen.  However, voter registration figures are a clear signal that the future of Tar Heel politics is quite unclear, and it is uncertain which candidates will ultimately benefit from the upswing of independent voters. 

What is certain is that North Carolina’s fastest growing political party is no party at all.

John Thompson is the executive director of the N.C. Center for Voter Education, a Raleigh-based nonprofit and nonpartisan organization dedicated to improving elections in North Carolina.