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Jan. 7, 2004

Curtain Rising on Presidential Election

By J. Barlow Herget

RALEIGH - The election for the presidency begins this month. Truly because there finally will be elections that begin the process of selecting the eventual nominees who will be on the November ballot.

And North Carolina could have more than the bit part it has been assigned in recent presidential primaries.

There may be some third party candidates who make it on the ballot, but realists know that the contest will come down to Republican and Democratic nominees. The Republicans had all the fun last time before settling on George Bush who wants and will be selected for a four-year encore.

This year, it is the Democrats who are fighting for center stage, and the primary calendar is designed to quickly select a star. Consider:

• Jan. 19, Iowa Caucus.
• Jan. 27, New Hampshire Primary Election.
• Feb. 3, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, Delaware, North Dakota primaries.
• Feb. 7, Michigan and Washington primaries.
• Feb. 8, Maine.
• Feb. 24, Tennessee and Virginia primaries.
• March 2, California, New York, Ohio, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island.
  

That should do it.

The Iowa caucuses do not select delegates to the national convention, but it starts that process. People go to 2,143 precinct meetings that are held across the state in places similar to those here in North Carolina; fire stations, schools, churches and even in people's living rooms.

Typically, about 100,000 participate in these meetings. Candidates' supporters make speeches on their candidate's behalf and at the end of the speechmaking, a vote is taken. It's Democracy 101, and a candidate such as North Carolina's Sen. John Edwards must have an extensive grass roots organization to win votes.

Iowa has only one percent of the delegates at the national convention, but because the caucuses are not a poll of 600 people but a real vote, they are given American Idol celebrity status by the national media. It is the same with the New Hampshire Primary.

Election results there do determine delegates to the national convention that are apportioned to candidates accordingly. It is the same in North Carolina, and unlike Iowa or New Hampshire, North Carolina as the 10th most populous state, does have a sizeable number of delegates.

Enter North Carolina's contested redistricting saga. Even though the Republicans in the state House agreed to a compromise, third redistricting plan for the state's legislative seats, some Republicans are contesting the plan in the courts. In 2002, the legal dispute caused the Election Board to delay the May Primary until late summer. If that happens again, delegates to the national conventions must be selected by state caucuses rather than by primary voters.

(Such a delay also would benefit incumbent Democratic Gov. Mike Easley in the same way the 2002 delay benefited Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole. She had the support not only of the state party's leadership but the White House, too. Her principal opponent Erskine Bowles had to fight through the spring and summer, spending money and time, before he won the nomination.)

Sen. John Edwards, as a favorite son, will have much more influence in caucuses and could win a majority if not all of the state's delegates who tend to be party loyalists.

Edwards is not expected to win in Iowa or New Hampshire, but he has been leading in the polls in South Carolina. There are other states voting on that day, too, several larger than South Carolina. Except for Missouri, which is expected to give a majority vote to its own favorite son, Rep. Richard Gephardt, there appears to be no certain favorite, namely former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.
Increasingly, the national media have been considering who might be an alternative to Dean should he stumble on Feb. 3, and Edwards is seen as such a candidate. Thus, if Edwards emerges from the Feb. 3 primaries as a contender, and he can claim all of North Carolina's Democratic delegates, he could stretch out the nomination until the decisive March 2 primary when California, New York and Ohio voters pick their favorites.

There are a lot of "if's" in such a scenario. But such scriptwriting makes politics America's favorite Passion play.

The best predictor in our recent politics, however, is money. If you follow the money, it takes you to the winners. In the 2002 Congressional and state legislative elections, the candidates who spent the most money won almost 90 percent of the time.

Here's a preview of that drama in this year's presidential election: At the end of 2003, Dean has raised over $40 million; Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, $29 million and Edwards and Gen. Wesley Clark almost $20 million among Democrats. And Republican George Bush, $112 million.

Those are daunting odds for Democrats, but they will tell you to go see the movie "Seabiscuit" about the upstart racehorse. The curtain on the 2004 presidential election goes up Jan. 19. Be sure to get your ticket to vote.

Barlow Herget is a former Raleigh city councilman and is host of "State Government Radio Newsmakers."