Nov. 1, 2004
And the Winner Is . . . (To Be Continued)
By J. Barlow Herget
RALEIGH - That famous political observer Lawrence Berra had a phrase that fits the 2004 election: It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
And many of us apparently believe that this year’s election may not be over even when it’s over.
Greg Valliere, chief strategist at Schwab Washington Research Group, typifies the feeling. He told CNN.Money magazine’s webpage: “I’m up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election, and it could drag on through December again.”
Worse, a sizeable number of voters, 48 percent according to a TIME magazine poll, think the declared winner may, in fact, be illegitimate. (Some Democratic partisans argue that’s what did happen in 2000.)
North Carolina voters have reason to feel less cynical. Unlike Florida and most other states, North Carolina operates its election system through a bipartisan, five-member Elections Board and a nonpartisan staff. There have been no great election scandals here since the civil rights era.
The state, however, is not without challenges this year. For starters, most counties were surprised by the large increase in early voters. There were long lines in metro counties and long waits. State Elections Board Executive Director Gary Bartlett says now that 1 million people voted early this year!
That is an amazing figure, considering that about 343,000 voted early in 2000. Early voters will constitute about 28 percent of the total, 3.5 million people who were expected to vote this year. That’s a large 68-to-69 percent turnout of registered voters.
But why the wait for winners?
There are a number of close statewide races as well as the all-consuming presidential election. Close races produce closer attention. And close attention can cause delays.
According to polls and political observers, five statewide races are very tight. They are: the U.S. Senate race, Agriculture Commissioner, State Auditor, Labor Commissioner, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.
There are five statewide court races that may also be squeakers: two NC Supreme Court seats and three Court of Appeals positions.
Thanks to the Florida election scandals in 2000, there are legal watchdogs from both parties on hand to check complaints, even here in North Carolina. These poll watchers may not delay vote counting significantly, but their challenges, however necessary, will not speed up the process.
Concerns have been raised nationwide about the merits of different voting machines. North Carolina has five types, including paper ballots in Tyrell County. So far, they have worked.
The biggest concern among elections officials here are provisional ballots. They are not new to North Carolina, however, and most of the precinct judges and workers have been trained in processing such ballots.
Provisional ballots are given to voters when there are questions about voters’ registration papers, their correct voting precinct, and other factors. Such ballots are counted only after these questions have been answered. Bartlett says that over 70 percent of such ballots typically are found valid and correct.
Bartlett estimates only 20,000 to 40,000 provisional ballots will be cast in the 2004 North Carolina election. In elections where there is a clear winner, provisional ballots rarely affect the outcome.
But in close statewide races where 10,000 to 15,000 votes separate the candidates, provisional ballots could determine the victor. Remember, George Bush won Florida’s decisive Electoral College votes by fewer than 600 ballots in 2000.
This year, with the nation deeply divided over economic and foreign policy, the country doesn’t need another delayed decision in the presidential race. We need a clear winner, one way or the other.
We all want our respective candidates to win, and the prospect of close elections is a very good reason to vote. Your vote may be the one that delivers the county, the state, even the nation, a decisive winner.
Barlow Herget is a former Raleigh city councilman and writes the Follow the Money column for the N.C. Center for Voter Education.
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