Sep. 16, 2002
How'd We Do?
By J. Barlow Herget
RALEIGH - North Carolina voters, like their counterparts nationwide, have followed several major election trends during the past three decades. So, how did we do in the September 10 Primary Election? Any new directions?
Voter turnout was a pleasant improvement -- if you consider an F-plus better than an F-minus. With all but 49 precincts out of 2,739 reporting from across the state, over 1.04 million citizens voted. More than 617,600 Democrats and over 422,100 Republicans voted in the U.S. Senate race.
Unofficially, that’s about 21 percent of total registered voters who did their civic duty. That’s not a number you want to take home and show your parents, but it’s an increase over the 1998 mid-term election turnout, when only 17 percent of registered voters participated in that primary.
Campaign costs, unlike turnout, apparently followed the trend of "more, more, more." Figures are incomplete, but campaign spending as of August 1st indicated that the top five candidates, Republicans Elizabeth Dole and Jim Snyder and Democrats Erskine Bowles, Dan Blue and Elaine Marshall spent about $12.4 million combined.
The two nominees, Dole and Bowles, spent $7.3 million and $3.6 million respectively to win. Spending figures for the U.S. Senate primary election in 1998 are not readily available, but total spending in that election through November was $17.3 million. Sen. D. M. "Lauch" Faircloth and Edwards spent $9.27 million and $8.05 million respectively, according to data collected by Thad Beyle, professor of political science at UNC Chapel Hill. Dole already has raised more money during this year’s primary than Faircloth spent in the 1998 primary and general elections combined.
Money talked in the September 10 Primary as loudly as in previous elections. In the 2000 state legislative races, for example, 85 percent of the candidates who out-spent their opponents won, according to the North Carolina Center for Voter Education. (Candidates who held a 2-to-1 spending ratio over their opponents won 91 percent of the time!)
The trend held true in this year’s primary. In the U.S. Senate race, Dole won handily with 80 percent of the Republican vote and Bowles ran stronger than expected with 44 percent of the vote, a surprising 16 percent better than his nearest rival.
In other high profile races, such as the new 13th Congressional District campaign, he or she who had, got. Democrat winner State Sen. Brad Miller led in contributions and loans ($406,601) among the top four candidates. In the Republican race, unofficial winner Carolyn Grant had $166,154 in donations and loans compared to her closest rival, Graham Boyd, who reported $58,415.
In the 1st Congressional District, three candidates collected large war chests for the primary battle to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Eva Clayton. The eventual winner, State Sen. Frank Ballance, was endorsed by Clayton, and was the top spender at $483,327. In the 8th Congressional district, Charlotte attorney Chris Kouri pulled off the biggest primary upset, defeating Billy Richardson for the nomination even though Richardson spent much more money.
State legislative incumbents, who tend to collect and spend more than challengers, also won easily. Even in newly drawn districts, 24 of 27 House incumbents appeared to have won and 12 of 16 Senate incumbents won. Only one incumbent in the NC Senate was defeated by a primary challenger who wasn’t also an incumbent. (Three Senate seats featured two incumbents battling each other.) None of North Carolina’s congressional delegation came close to being defeated in the primaries. This election confirms that incumbency is a powerful advantage in the political world.
It’s too early to measure primary election media coverage. The trend in media coverage, however, was highlighted by Matt Farrey of the Washington-based Alliance for Better Campaigns at a recent UNC-Chapel Hill workshop. He reported that the length of time for sound bites from presidential candidates dropped from 43 seconds in 1968 to 8 seconds in 2000. Evidence is only anecdotal, but it seemed to me at least that there was a lopsided amount of attention given to the dueling Miss North Carolina beauties compared to political candidates in the final week of this election.
This election did see more, but not much more, free airtime donated by television broadcasters. Jim Goodmon’s Capital Broadcasting Co. of Raleigh repeatedly aired two-minute messages from U.S. Senate candidates on its stations WRAL in Raleigh, WRAZ in Durham, WJCY in Charlotte, and WILM in Wilmington. WSOC in Charlotte and WXII in Winston-Salem and Time Warner’s News 14 stations in Raleigh and Charlotte also joined the movement.
On balance, North Carolina voters, candidates and press stayed the campaign course, highlighting some familiar trends in our elections.
Barlow Herget is a writer and former member of the Raleigh City Council.
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