For immediate release.
October 9, 2000
Contact: Jesse Rutledge, N.C. Center for Voter Education,
(919) 839-1200
On Eve of Second Bush-Gore Debate, N.C. Voters Declare First Round a Tie
RALEIGH - A new public opinion poll conducted for the N.C. Center for Voter Education shows that viewers across North Carolina thought the first presidential debate, held October 3rd at the University of Massachusetts, was a draw.
The survey found that 34.3 percent of viewers who watched at least part of the debate thought Democrat Al Gore did a better job, while 34.8 percent thought Republican George W. Bush was the victor. Also, 15.6 percent thought that both did an equally good job, with remaining viewers either holding no opinion or saying neither candidate did a better job than the other. Conducted by Raleigh-based Strategic Analysis and Messaging, the poll surveyed 739 likely voters statewide October 4th-6th.
Since the start of the presidential campaign, most polls have given George W. Bush a commanding lead in North Carolina. In mid-May, a poll sponsored by the N.C. Center for Voter Education and conducted by the Tarrance Group, a Republican polling firm, showed Bush with a 46 percent to 32 percent lead over Gore across the state. Since then, no statewide polls have shown Gore leading. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
"Considering that North Carolina is considered to be in a 'lockbox' for the Bush camp, a tie is not a bad result for Gore," said Jesse Rutledge, director of communications for the N.C. Center for Voter Education. "It's doubtful that this will translate into significantly better poll numbers for Gore in North Carolina. More likely, this is a case of Bush supporters being willing to acknowledge their candidate may not be the better debater."
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll that asked the same question nationally found Gore to be the winner, by a 48 percent to 41 percent margin. That poll also found that very few voters -- only three or four percent -- switched their preferences based on what they saw in the presidential debate.
"People watch debates to size up candidates. They are interested in issues, in character, and in how candidates carry themselves," said Rutledge. "Few watch the debates solely to see who the better debater is, and even fewer will change their preferences only on debate performance."
The second presidential debate is scheduled for October 11th, at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem.
"The debate in Winston-Salem is probably about as close to the action as North Carolinians can get to the presidential candidates this year," Rutledge continued. "Neither campaign has put many resources into the state, as both camps concentrate on the 'battleground' states where polls show the election will be decided."
The survey asked: Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate?"
This poll was a scientific survey of public opinion among 739 likely voters in North Carolina conducted on the dates of October 4th, 5th and 6th, 2000, by Strategic Analysis & Messaging. The voter poll was based upon actual telephone interviews by professionally trained operators of 739 registered voters in North Carolina who are likely to vote in the 2000 General Election and the sample population was scientifically selected to meet rigid criteria of random selection and geographical allocation. Survey results for a sample of 739 provide a sampling error factor of less than plus or minus 4 percent at the .95 percent confidence level.
The N.C. Center for Voter Education is a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization based in Raleigh dedicated to improving the quality and responsiveness of North Carolina's election system. Former U.S. Senator Robert Morgan serves as chairman of the board.
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919.839.1200